Twenty Election Cycles and Counting

The first Senate race covered was in 1986 for newspapers in Florida. Bob Graham, a well-liked two-term Democratic governor, attempted to unseat Republican Senator Paula Hawkins, who had benefited from the Reagan-led Republican Senate wave in 1980. Although Hawkins was the incumbent, Graham was the favored candidate, and a journalist was tasked with following him. Graham enjoyed campaigning, greeting voters enthusiastically as he traveled the state with reporters. The campaign allowed for leisure stops, including an impromptu lunch in Key West, reflecting the confidence of Graham and his team.

Covering congressional campaigns for nearly four decades revealed immense changes, though the core approach remained the same: focus on individual races to identify broader themes affecting national politics. Recent coverage has concentrated on whether Democrats can maintain their slim majority in the face of races favoring Republicans. Key vulnerable Democratic incumbents, such as Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, are vying for re-election in states that Donald Trump won. Additionally, the piece examined Tester's challenges as indicative of the declining Democratic strength in certain regions.

For the House, the focus has been whether Republicans' internal issues could cost them control, despite some pivotal races being in predictably blue states. Predicting outcomes has become more complex, especially with high-stakes congressional elections resembling the 2000 Florida contest that was uncertain for weeks. Campaigns have evolved from intimate events and policy debates to heavily managed media interactions, with candidates opting for controlled narratives aimed at favorable platforms and digital advertising.

An enduring aspect of elections is the occurrence of surprises, such as unexpected defeats. As the November elections nears, a few unforeseen results are anticipated. After years in the field, the ability to adapt to unexpected developments remains crucial.