Why pre-snap motion and zone defense are keys to unlocking fantasy football sleepers
For example, we hear all the time, ‘It’s a pass-happy league,’ but is it? Turns out, the league passed 56.2% of the time in 2000 and 57.5% of the time last year, with a peak of 59.3% in 2016. Even looking at the first-down pass rate, it was 48.5% in 2000, 48.2% last year and peaked at 50.1% in 2018.
Be careful when you hear about trends, as some are more perception than reality. However, I’m here to share two interesting NFL trends — that are real — and tell you how to use them and improve your chances for fantasy success.
Highway to the ‘Danger Zone’
Okay, yes, the NFL passes more frequently than in the ’90s (and before), when a near 50/50 run-to-pass rate was the league norm. However, there has been a stark change over the past five seasons related to the ‘pass happier’ days of this century: zone defense rate is up. In 2019, NFL defenses ran zone coverage 58.9% of the time, and it was an eyebrow-raising 70.2% last year with a continued increase every year in between (58.9; 62.5; 65.7; 69.5; 70.2%).
Start looking for receivers who excel against zone coverage. But who stands out from the non-obvious names? After all, if we take the leaders (min. 25 targets) in yards per route run (YPRR) — one of the highest-correlated stats for success — it’s led by numerous big names.
Here are the top 50 receivers in YPRR (min. 25 targets): 1 Tyreek Hill 2 Nico Collins 3 Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Brandon Aiyuk 5 Jaylen Waddle 6 Justin Jefferson 7 Rashee Rice 8 Deebo Samuel Sr. 9 Puka Nacua 10 Keenan Allen 11 Amari Cooper 12 Tank Dell 13 Khalil Shakir 14 Kalif Raymond 15 A.J. Brown 16 Dontayvion Wicks 17 Mike Evans 18 DeAndre Hopkins 19 Cooper Kupp 20 Jayden Reed 21 CeeDee Lamb 22 Ja’Marr Chase 23 Davante Adams 24 Noah Brown 25 Jerry Jeudy 26 Michael Pittman 27 Stefon Diggs 28 DeVonta Smith 29 Chris Godwin 30 DK Metcalf 31 Kendrick Bourne 32 Tyler Lockett 33 George Pickens 34 Mack Hollins 35 Tee Higgins 36 Christian Kirk 37 Drake London 38 Chris Olave 39 Zay Flowers 40 DJ Moore 41 Josh Downs 42 Odell Beckham Jr. 43 Romeo Doubs 44 Demario Douglas 45 Diontae Johnson 46 Michael Wilson 47 Garrett Wilson 48 Jakobi Meyers 49 Rashid Shaheed 50 Calvin Ridley
Another important stat to consider is the first-down-to-target percentage (1D/TGT%). Here are the top 50 receivers in 1D/TGT%: 1 Khalil Shakir 2 Michael Wilson 3 Brandon Aiyuk 4 Dontayvion Wicks 5 Justin Jefferson 6 Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 Tyreek Hill 8 Josh Reynolds 9 Noah Brown 10 Rashee Rice 11 Nico Collins 12 Romeo Doubs 13 A.J. Brown 14 Jaylen Waddle 15 DK Metcalf 16 Odell Beckham MIA 17 Gabe Davis 18 DeVonta Smith 19 DJ Moore 20 Chris Moore 21 Tank Dell 22 Tyler Lockett 23 Jakobi Meyers 24 Kalif Raymond 25 Tee Higgins 26 Chris Godwin 27 George Pickens 28 Drake London 29 Cooper Kupp 30 Puka Nacua 31 Ja’Marr Chase 32 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 33 Diontae Johnson 34 Rashod Bateman 35 Deebo Samuel 36 Christian Kirk 37 Keenan Allen 38 Brandin Cooks 39 CeeDee Lamb 40 Chris Olave 41 Nelson Agholor 42 Calvin Ridley 43 Michael Pittman 44 Darius Slayton 45 Amari Cooper 46 Darnell Mooney 47 Rashid Shaheed 48 Tutu Atwell 49 Mike Evans 50 Zay Flowers
Now, let’s look at the biggest gaps for receivers when it comes to YPRR against zone coverage compared to man coverage: 1 Romeo Doubs 2 Parris Campbell 3 Tyler Scott 4 Mack Hollins 5 Michael Wilson 6 Jerry Jeudy 7 Deebo Samuel 8 Demarcus Robinson 9 Tyler Lockett 10 Khalil Shakir 11 Treylon Burks 12 Allen Robinson 13 Quentin Johnston 14 Amon-Ra St. Brown 15 Rashee Rice 16 Cooper Kupp 17 Trenton Irwin 18 Kendrick Bourne 19 Kalif Raymond 20 Tee Higgins 21 Dontayvion Wicks 22 DeVonta Smith 23 Rondale Moore 24 Robert Woods 25 Gabe Davis 26 Zay Flowers 27 Jakobi Meyers 28 Marvin Mims 29 Xavier Gipson 30 Jaylen Waddle 31 Jalen Tolbert 32 Davante Adams 33 Amari Cooper 34 Josh Downs 35 Keenan Allen
And here are the biggest gaps for receivers in 1D/TGT% against zone coverage compared to man coverage: 1 Tyler Scott 2 Xavier Gipson 3 Treylon Burks 4 Michael Wilson 5 Isaiah Hodgins 6 Jalen Tolbert 7 Romeo Doubs 8 Allen Robinson 9 Darnell Mooney 10 Tyler Lockett 11 Rashee Rice 12 Cooper Kupp 13 Cedric Tillman 14 Khalil Shakir 15 Odell Beckham MIA 16 Michael Pittman 17 Amon-Ra St. Brown 18 Gabe Davis
Looking back over four years, these trends have shown some consistency, although long-term sustainability is still in question. It’s worth noting these trends as potential factors in player performance and draft strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season.
In addition to the zone coverage trend, pre-snap motion has also been found to have a significant impact on fantasy scoring. Wide receivers who are frequently involved in pre-snap motion routes have produced 50% more fantasy points than those who aren’t.
Teams that utilize pre-snap motion more than the league average have shown positive impacts on fantasy players. Changes in offensive coordinators and play-callers can also affect the utilization of pre-snap motion, leading to potential fantasy boosts or downturns for certain players.
While these trends shouldn’t be the sole basis for drafting decisions, they provide valuable insights that can influence rankings and draft strategies for the 2024 fantasy football season.